Performance and forecast of Indonesian pepper exports to Italy

Agus Dwi Nugroho and Imade Yoga Prasada

Abstract: The pepper trade in the world today is quite competitive, limiting Indonesia’s share of the export market. Consequently, Indonesia must look for new partners. One potential destination country for Indonesian pepper exports is Italy. Unfortunately, Indonesia is not optimally prepared to export peppers to Italy. The aims of this study are to ascertain the performance of Indonesian pepper exports to Italy and forecast its future. The research used Indonesian data and that of its competing exporters to Italy from 1989–2018. Descriptive and autoregressive integrated moving averages were used to analyze the data. Indonesian pepper exports are expected to continue growing in the future. By 2030, it is expected to increase to 25% over 2018. However, to increase those exports to Italy, Indonesia needs to meet the standards of the European Spice Association and strengthen its
bilateral cooperation. It must also improve pepper quality and promotion so that it can compete with pepper from other countries.

Keywords: competitive; forecast; Indonesia; pepper; performance

Date published: 2020-10-16