Analysis of Italian dairy export over 18 years in the European Union market and in the world using the median approach

Nicola Galluzzo

Abstract: The dairy Italian production is prevalently located in some regions of North Italy; where there are several dairy cooperatives specialized in cheese production or in other dairy activities. This analysis has valued, using some statistical time series over 18 years, the monthly and yearly effect of Italian milk exportations in the world and in the European Union market in quantity and in monetary value. The monthly and yearly effects have been estimated throughout a quantitative approach based on the median, which has an important function in order to reduce some distorted effects due to outliners in statistical data. The monthly time series, both in terms of constant currency value and in quantity, in the world and in the European Union, have pointed out cyclical fluctuations due to seasonal effects in milk production. The yearly effect about the Italian milk exports in the European Union market has underlined a constant growth. In general, the median approach was a good statistical tool to analyse commercial flows, emphasizing the effect of a structural break in Italian milk exportations after the adhesion to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and due to structural changes in Italian dairy sector. For the next future, Italian dairy productions should be able, thank to a high diffusion and distribution of certified quality foods, to boost profits throughout promotional actions towards not consolidated markets of the European Union.

Keywords: cycle trend; Italian milk production; median; monthly effect

Date published: 2019-06-28