An analytical evaluation of factors that determine the red meat production in Turkey

Ergun Simsek

Abstract: In this research, the factors that affect the red meat production in Turkey have been analyzed with an analytical approach. The material of the research is red meat production (dependent variable), red meat importation and exportation, livestock importation and exportation, prices of fattening feed, prices of red meat, agricultural supports (independent variables), index of consumer and producer prices in 1994-2017. Current prices and agricultural supports have been turned into fixed prices through consumer and producer prices. The effect of independent variables on red meat production has been analyzed through Least Squares Method. Before the stage of analysis, the stability of the series has been tested through Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test. As a result of the test, it has been found out that, red meat production, agricultural supports, red meat importation and livestock importation series are not stationary in level values and they have been stabilized by taking their first variations. By applying stepwise method, which is one of the multiple regression methods, to the stabilized series, the model that best describes the relationship between dependent and independent variables has been identified. According to that model, it has been revealed that, the rise in the livestock exportation, livestock importation and red meat importation, reduces the red meat production and the increase in the red meat prices and agricultural supports, also increases the red meat production in Turkey. On the other hand, it has been found out that, the prices of fattening feed and the variables of red meat exportation are not explanatory in red meat production.

Keywords: agricultural policies; red meat; Turkey

Date published: 2020-04-29